WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?

     I foresee two possible scenarios.  In one, Trump will continue to do whatever he wants.  Although his margin of victory was very narrow, he still proclaims that he “won big.”  This hubris has been compounded by the Supreme Court’s outrageous decision that a president is immune from prosecution for any acts performed while in office.  (The founding fathers would have denounced this decision, since they did not want “another king,” but rather that “law be the king,” as Thomas Paine wrote.)  Trump will continue to use Elon Musk to eliminate departments he wants gone and to fire whomever he wishes.  He will ignore court opinions condemning his actions.  So far, the Republican majorities in the House and Senate have completely supported him.   If this success continues, Trump may well serve a third term, as he has said he wants.  The rule of law will be overthrown as will the Constitution.  The United States of America will become a true dictatorship, with the army gunning down those who disagree with the government.  Police forces will act the same way.  The goal is to “Make America Great Again,” as the MAGA forces proclaim.  This means eliminating women, Blacks, gays, etc. from all public life and authority.  White men, especially old white men, will rule.  Recently, to give just one horrible example among many, Ira Hayes, one of the two soldiers raising the flag at Iwo Jima in the famous 1945 photograph, has been purged from the government website because he is Native American.

     However, I don’t think all this tyrannical success is a likely scenario.  Right now, members of Congress are on leave, going home to face their constituents.  There is already tremendous opposition to their and Trump’s corrupt and self-serving policies.  These politicians have been denounced and booed.  Some refuse to hold meetings or insist that all those who oppose them are Democrats.

     I don’t think these tactics are going to succeed.  Too many well-established and supported groups oppose them, from the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), to Indivisible, to people who oppose making abortion illegal.  To give just one example, states outlawing abortion have seen doctors and businesses leave their states and increasing numbers of women proclaiming their injuries.  I believe that opposition to dictatorial, high-handed policies is growing.  Recently, courts have ruled that the government can’t just ship immigrants to Central America, expel anyone who supports Palestinian rights, or deny funds for health care and research to both government bodies and universities.  As Trump’s government continues its outrageous policies, I believe that this opposition will grow. 

     Much rests inevitably on the Supreme Court.  Chief Justice Roberts just proclaimed that Trump’s desire to impeach the judge who ruled against his policy on immigrants is wrong.  The only legitimate way to change this decision is to go through the courts.  Will Americans support overturning our entire judicial system?  I don’t think so.

     Of course I might be wrong.  As a historian, this era reminds me most of the United States just before the Civil War.  Then, a large minority of the nation opposed basic liberties and rights.  It took a bloody war to stop them.  I don’t think this struggle will come to war in our own day.  Here’s hoping I’m correct.